The Audacity of Nope

By the time Barack Obama arrived in Copenhagen, expectations for a binding or significant agreement were tracking on the downside of hope. After Obama's lacklustre speech, which contributed little to the success of the talks, many were left wondering why he bothered.

Hugo Chávez, the president of Venezuela, described Obama’s speech as “ridiculous” and the US’s initial offer of a $10bn fund for poor countries in the draft text as “a joke”.

After two years of lead -up work, two weeks of intense 192-way wrangling, and the presence of 115 world leaders, the best that Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao could come up with was a 'political agreement' that offers little progress, and in some areas a regression on previous agreements. The 'Copenhagen Accord', negotiated jointly with South Africa, India and Brazil, has infuriated developing nations. After weeks of intense negotiating, they have been effectively reduced to spectators, and have had their pleas for strong action ignored.

It is unclear whether binding agreements on rich nations will be included in the Accord. All references to a 1.5 degree temperature rise limit were removed at the last minute, and the goal of an 80 percent global emissions reduction by 2050 was also dropped. Mitigation and adaptation funding for developing nations was agreed at around 10- 25 percent of that demanded by some African nations, though the funding is in accord with the pragmatic and heavily criticised plan developed by Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi. The accord also includes agreements on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, though with REDD the devil will well and truly be in the the detail.

The accord appears unlikely to be endorsed by the summit. A number of nations, including Tuvalu, Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and several African nations, have indicated they will not support it. At 2pm Australian time (2am Copenhagen) a rousing speech by Tuvaluan representatives indicating they would not support the accord was roundly endorsed by developing nations who felt they had not been consulted, and it appeared the talks were headed for a complete collapse.The talks, which had continued through the night, were still ongoing, however, at the time of writing (5:30am Copenhagen time).

Some leaders blamed each other. Others talked up the outcome. And others were flattened by the gravity of the failure in Copenhagen.

Earlier, after the Accord's announcement, the G77's Lumumba Di-Aping was scathing. "This deal will definitely result in massive devastation in Africa and small island states,”he said. “It has the lowest level of ambition you can imagine. It's nothing short of climate change scepticism in action."

"It locks countries into a cycle of poverty for ever'" Di-Aping said."Obama has eliminated any difference between him and Bush."

Evo Morales, along with many others, blamed the countries who negotiated the Accord."The meeting has failed. It's unfortunate for the planet. The fault is with the lack of political will by a small group of countries led by the US," he said.

Kevin Rudd was understandably positive regarding the non-deal, which followed the ALP climate policy model - high on rhetoric,low on action.“We have achieved genuine progress and a genuine step forward,” he said.“This is the first time ever developed and developing nations have committed to a two degree Celsius rise.”

Greens senator Christine Milne disagreed with Prime Minister Rudd, providing a clear and sobering summation of the talks, calling the accord “superficial last-minute statement … with no substantive progress made on any of the critical issues”.

The prospect of Copenhagen producing nothing but a 'superficial last minute statement' was thrown into sharp relief by the words of Tuvaluan PM Apisai Ielemia, telling world leaders to cut their emissions so it can continue to exist as a nation.“We have nowhere to run to because our islands are tiny, we just have to prepare ourselves individually, family wise so that they know what to do when a cyclone comes in or a hurricane blows because there is nothing else we can do," Ielemia said." There is no mountain we can climb up, there is no other inland where we can run to like in your big countries.”By the time Barack Obama arrived in Copenhagen, expectations for a binding or significant agreement were tracking on the downside of hope. After Obama's lacklustre speech, which contributed little to the success of the talks, many were left wondering why he bothered.

Hugo Chávez, the president of Venezuela, described Obama’s speech as “ridiculous” and the US’s initial offer of a $10bn fund for poor countries in the draft text as “a joke”.

After two years of lead -up work, two weeks of intense 192-way wrangling, and the presence of 115 world leaders, the best that Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao could come up with was a 'political agreement' that offers little progress, and in some areas a regression on previous agreements. The 'Copenhagen Accord', negotiated jointly with South Africa, India and Brazil, has infuriated developing nations. After weeks of intense negotiating, they have been effectively reduced to spectators, and have had their pleas for strong action ignored.

It is unclear whether binding agreements on rich nations will be included in the Accord. All references to a 1.5 degree temperature rise limit were removed at the last minute, and the goal of an 80 percent global emissions reduction by 2050 was also dropped. Mitigation and adaptation funding for developing nations was agreed at around 10- 25 percent of that demanded by some African nations, though the funding is in accord with the pragmatic and heavily criticised plan developed by Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi. The accord also includes agreements on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, though with REDD the devil will well and truly be in the the detail.

The accord appears unlikely to be endorsed by the summit. A number of nations, including Tuvalu, Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and several African nations, have indicated they will not support it. At 2pm Australian time (2am Copenhagen) a rousing speech by Tuvaluan representatives indicating they would not support the accord was roundly endorsed by developing nations who felt they had not been consulted, and it appeared the talks were headed for a complete collapse.The talks, which had continued through the night, were still ongoing, however, at the time of writing (5:30am Copenhagen time).

Some leaders blamed each other. Others talked up the outcome. And others were flattened by the gravity of the failure in Copenhagen.

Earlier, after the Accord's announcement, the G77's Lumumba Di-Aping was scathing. "This deal will definitely result in massive devastation in Africa and small island states,”he said. “It has the lowest level of ambition you can imagine. It's nothing short of climate change scepticism in action."

"It locks countries into a cycle of poverty for ever'" Di-Aping said."Obama has eliminated any difference between him and Bush."

Evo Morales, along with many others, blamed the countries who negotiated the Accord."The meeting has failed. It's unfortunate for the planet. The fault is with the lack of political will by a small group of countries led by the US," he said.

Kevin Rudd was understandably positive regarding the non-deal, which followed the ALP climate policy model - high on rhetoric,low on action.“We have achieved genuine progress and a genuine step forward,” he said.“This is the first time ever developed and developing nations have committed to a two degree Celsius rise.”

Greens senator Christine Milne disagreed with Prime Minister Rudd, providing a clear and sobering summation of the talks, calling the accord “superficial last-minute statement … with no substantive progress made on any of the critical issues”.

The prospect of Copenhagen producing nothing but a 'superficial last minute statement' was thrown into sharp relief by the words of Tuvaluan PM Apisai Ielemia, telling world leaders to cut their emissions so it can continue to exist as a nation.“We have nowhere to run to because our islands are tiny, we just have to prepare ourselves individually, family wise so that they know what to do when a cyclone comes in or a hurricane blows because there is nothing else we can do," Ielemia said." There is no mountain we can climb up, there is no other inland where we can run to like in your big countries.”By the time Barack Obama arrived in Copenhagen, expectations for a binding or significant agreement were tracking on the downside of hope. After Obama's lacklustre speech, which contributed little to the success of the talks, many were left wondering why he bothered.

Hugo Chávez, the president of Venezuela, described Obama’s speech as “ridiculous” and the US’s initial offer of a $10bn fund for poor countries in the draft text as “a joke”.

After two years of lead -up work, two weeks of intense 192-way wrangling, and the presence of 115 world leaders, the best that Obama and Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao could come up with was a 'political agreement' that offers little progress, and in some areas a regression on previous agreements. The 'Copenhagen Accord', negotiated jointly with South Africa, India and Brazil, has infuriated developing nations. After weeks of intense negotiating, they have been effectively reduced to spectators, and have had their pleas for strong action ignored.

It is unclear whether binding agreements on rich nations will be included in the Accord. All references to a 1.5 degree temperature rise limit were removed at the last minute, and the goal of an 80 percent global emissions reduction by 2050 was also dropped. Mitigation and adaptation funding for developing nations was agreed at around 10- 25 percent of that demanded by some African nations, though the funding is in accord with the pragmatic and heavily criticised plan developed by Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi. The accord also includes agreements on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation, though with REDD the devil will well and truly be in the the detail.

The accord appears unlikely to be endorsed by the summit. A number of nations, including Tuvalu, Venezuela, Bolivia, Cuba, Nicaragua, and several African nations, have indicated they will not support it. At 2pm Australian time (2am Copenhagen) a rousing speech by Tuvaluan representatives indicating they would not support the accord was roundly endorsed by developing nations who felt they had not been consulted, and it appeared the talks were headed for a complete collapse.The talks, which had continued through the night, were still ongoing, however, at the time of writing (5:30am Copenhagen time).

Some leaders blamed each other. Others talked up the outcome. And others were flattened by the gravity of the failure in Copenhagen.

Earlier, after the Accord's announcement, the G77's Lumumba Di-Aping was scathing. "This deal will definitely result in massive devastation in Africa and small island states,”he said. “It has the lowest level of ambition you can imagine. It's nothing short of climate change scepticism in action."

"It locks countries into a cycle of poverty for ever'" Di-Aping said."Obama has eliminated any difference between him and Bush."

Evo Morales, along with many others, blamed the countries who negotiated the Accord."The meeting has failed. It's unfortunate for the planet. The fault is with the lack of political will by a small group of countries led by the US," he said.

Kevin Rudd was understandably positive regarding the non-deal, which followed the ALP climate policy model - high on rhetoric,low on action.“We have achieved genuine progress and a genuine step forward,” he said.“This is the first time ever developed and developing nations have committed to a two degree Celsius rise.”

Greens senator Christine Milne disagreed with Prime Minister Rudd, providing a clear and sobering summation of the talks, calling the accord “superficial last-minute statement … with no substantive progress made on any of the critical issues”.

The prospect of Copenhagen producing nothing but a 'superficial last minute statement' was thrown into sharp relief by the words of Tuvaluan PM Apisai Ielemia, telling world leaders to cut their emissions so it can continue to exist as a nation.“We have nowhere to run to because our islands are tiny, we just have to prepare ourselves individually, family wise so that they know what to do when a cyclone comes in or a hurricane blows because there is nothing else we can do," Ielemia said." There is no mountain we can climb up, there is no other inland where we can run to like in your big countries.”

Sarkozy: "Let's stop posturing - A failure in Copenhagen would be a catastrophe for each and every one of us.”

Gordon and Nicolas in happier times


A confidential UN analysis leaked to The Guardian has put the lie to claims from nations such as Australia that they are committed to capping global temperature rises at two degrees. The report assesses the current emission reductions on the table at Copenhagen as leading to a three degree global average rise.

Climate campaigners seized on the report, with 350.org founder Bill Mckibben saying: "In one sense this is no secret – we've been saying it for months. But it is powerful to have the UN confirming its own insincerity."

In negotiations, the G77+China have successfully forced rich nations to continue the Kyoto track, after chair Denmark and other rich nations wasted a day and half unsuccessfully attempting a submission hold on the developing world. Rich nations hoped to force the abandonment of Kyoto, which sees only them with mandated emissions reduction targets, in favour of the ‘Danish’ text which enforces across-the-globe cuts, albeit with higher per capita emissions allowances for rich nations.

The Australian blamed the developing world bloc for almost sinking the talks with their rejection of the Danish text, with Copenhagen correspondent Lenore Taylor leading with “ BLOCKING tactics by China and the developing world have brought the Copenhagen climate talks to the brink of collapse, leaving more than 140 world leaders facing the prospect of achieving only a weak political statement.” The Oz missed the all important context of this debate - that is, the universal uproar that greeted the parachuting in of the new Danish text the previous day, and the clear warnings on day two of the talks that developing nations would not accept such a text.

With the continuance of the two track talks confirmed, some developing nation representatives where aiming with getting on with the job. Indian environment minister Jairam Ramesh said:"We have lost a day and a half. I don't want to point fingers. We must get talks back on a substantive track by the time the world leaders meet tomorrow."

Others expressed the fears of the most vulnerable nations. Maldives President Mohammed Nasheed said: "We will not have a draft. There is no draft. We are facing a situation where it is possible that nothing comes out of [Copenhagen] unless the heads of state decide to come up with it themselves."

"I am very nervous and very disappointed. During the course of the past two years, negotiators were supposed to have come up with a document for us to see and consider tomorrow, but they have failed," Nasheed said.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy was similarly blunt. "There is less than 24 hours. If we carry on like this, it will be a failure," Sarkozy said. "Time is against us, let's stop posturing.... A failure in Copenhagen would be a catastrophe for each and every one of us.”

Further difficulties may arise as Tuvalu, and other nations, doggedly pursue a 1.5 degree deal. "Over the last few days we have faced considerable pressure to accept a deal based around 2C. We have not yielded to this pressure because our future is not negotiable.I will not sign anything that is not 1.5C," said Tuvaluan PM Amisa Elamia.

Unlike Tuvalu, however, some nations have not been able to resist pressure from major aid donors. A Mauritanian negotiator quoted in The Guardian revealed that “the Europeans have broken the African solidarity. There is enormous pressure on the heads of state of Africa. They are very weak – especially in financial terms. Any African country that depends on French or British aid will not be able to raise its voice to object."

Some positive steps have been made in the negotiations, however, with Hillary Clinton’s backing of African Union negotiator Meles Zenawi’s US$100b developing nation fund seen as significant. China and Indonesia’s moves towards allowing independent verification of their emissions reduction efforts were also viewed as constructive, with China’s resistance to this a key sticking point with the US.

Gordon :"You know whats funny? We haven't slept for three days. And it's all Denmark's fault."

Hillary: "At least we're not in Gitmo Junior."

A surprisingly sanguine Gordon Brown expressed hope that a funding agreement could be agreed by world leaders tomorrow, and reported that Chinese 2IC Wen Jiabao had raised the possibility with him of China working towards an emissions ‘peak’ - a significant departure from China’s current offer of reducing carbon intensity (CO2 emitted per GDP unit). Brown also told reporters that he and Mexican President Felipe Calderon had discussed moving forward the next major UN climate meeting in Mexico from December to July.

Reports also emerged of Danish police using wire taps, pre-emptive arrests, summary beatings, widespread undercover operations, and the pepper-spraying people in cages in a detention centre that police are calling “Guantanamo junior”. The Danish justice minister was quoted as saying “The aim of the law was to prevent violent demonstrators from setting the town on fire, attacking the police and ordinary citizens and from making extensive vandalism. And the law has worked. The police have ... thanks to their new powers done a really good job and prevented extensive unrest. I can tell the people appreciate this."

In local politics, the Coalition backed themselves even further into their own corner, with Warren Truss pouring scorn on the Ethiopian plan to raise revenue on aviation and shipping freight levies, and Barnaby Joyce causing problems for Tony Abbot’s ‘direct action’ emissions reduction ‘plan’ by calling for compensation or an end to controls on land clearing.

There was once again no sceptics quoted in the examined outlets. There was a slight increase in the number of developing country voices quoted over the other days examined, however this was not hugely significant. The graphs below show the respective figures overall (graph 1) and per outlet (graph 2). Once again the Guardian was far and away the outlet with the largest number of quoted sources.

Tuvalu Squeezes Life From Titanic Metaphor, Rudd squeezes Tuvalu

A tired Ed Miliband tries the oldest trick in the book to distract attention for the looming disaster at Copenhagen- "Hey, did I just see Tiger Woods and Connie Hedeggard go into that negotiating room?"

The talks in Copenhagen are tracking way behind schedule. UK climate secretary Ed Miliband warned that they could descend into a bureaucratic “farce”, saying "people will be rightly furious if agreement is not possible."

The two track approach is appearing increasingly mangled and unwieldy. Developing nations are seeking an extension of the Kyoto Protocol and rich nations a new agreement which enforces binding and verifiable cuts on developing nations.

Wednesday saw the new Danish chair, Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, drop a new draft text from the sky. The draft, developed by a small number of nations (including the U.S., Australia, and Japan) caused uproar after many negotiators had worked through the previous night on the Kyoto text.

Tuvaluan chief negotiator Ian Fry effectively summarised proceedings, getting some new life out of the flogged carcass of the Titanic/climate change metaphor. "I have the feeling of dread that we are on the Titanic and sinking fast, but we can't launch any life boats because a member of the crew has decided that we are not sinking and that we have to have informal consultations to decide whether we are sinking or not," Fry said.

Ethiopian PM and African Union negotiator Meles Zenawi has also polarised the talks. He secured support from Nicholas Sarkozy and Gordon Brown for a plan to fund developing nations through international aviation and shipping levies and a financial tax.

The plan also involves a three year ‘fast start’ involving rich nation funding, with 40 percent of this going to Africa, 20 percent to deforestation, and with developing nations having a say in distribution.

The Swedish PM, Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi and the European Commision head talking cash money dollars

Zenawi is conscious this may undermine efforts by harder line African negotiators, saying, "I know my proposal will disappoint some Africans . . . It scales back the ambition in return for more reliable funding," he said. "Because we have more to lose than others, we have to be more flexible.”

The G77 group of 130 developing nations has consistently asked for funding of US$400b per annum. Zenawi’s proposal provides $50bn a year for poor countries by 2015 and $100bn by 2020, in line with EU and UK offers.

Zenawi’s pragmatic approach captures the essence of the problem for many African nations, and the entire conference – is a bad deal better than no deal?

Awudu Mbaya, president of the Pan-African Parliamentarians Network on Climate Change, was definitely not impressed, saying, "If Prime Minister Meles wants to sell out the lives and hopes of Africans for a pittance he is welcome to, but that is not Africa's position".

The Australian pulled out yet more shoddy journalism. They framed the three day old tear-jerker moment of Queanbeyan-based Tuvalu Fry around his motivations as a Tuvalu representative, and his green credentials.

An unlucky intern was evidently sent snooping around his house, coming up with this keen observation - “At home, he practises what he preaches with a water tank, chooks and a vegie patch in the backyard, although there's a window-mounted air-conditioning unit down the side and a late model gas-guzzling Ford cab ute in the driveway.”

And with no source quoted, The Oz accused Fry of self interest - “Already he has forced the suspension of the main meeting in Copenhagen. But he insists his globe-trotting to tackle climate change is “not an ego trip”. It was unclear whether Fry himself used the phrase "not an ego trip". At least they quoted his ANU PhD supervisor (the head of the renowned Fenner School, Stephen Dovers) calling such speculation “childish”).

The Australian also quoted the PM as saying that Copenhagen was like "your average ALP conference on steroids." Judging by his reported bullying of island nations to drop their 1.5 degree temperature rise demand, it would be safe to assume he meant a NSW ALP conference.

Tuvalu Prime Minister Apisai Ielemia told the ABC that representatives of the PM’s office are pressuring him and other island leaders to back down on their demands, and that Mr Rudd has been calling Pacific leaders with the same message in the lead up to the talks.

Ian Fry - " Do you think the threat of making him wear this shirt at the South Pacific Forum is enough to hold off Ruddles?"

Diplomat - "I think so. Even Darryl Sommers wouldn't wear that."

Bolivian President Evo Morales one-upped the small island nations by demanding a one degree temperature rise limit (statistically determined as being "extremely bloody difficult") while he, Hugo Chavez, and Robert Mugabe railed against unrestrained capitalism as the root cause of climate change. Apparently Chavez’s address received the biggest applause of the day. Penny Wong was reportedly booed and had her speech interrupted by protestors calling for “climate justice now”.

Around 200 NGO delegates, joined by a few nation delegates, also staged a walkout at the Bella Centre to coincide with the ‘Reclaim Power’ action, where around 3000 people attempted to gain access to the centre. Many were angered by the revoking of access to the centre for respected NGOs such as Friends of the Earth and Avaaz.

The Scots offer whisky incentive as The Governator and Ramesh compete for 'toughest in conference'

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond - "No whisky for Obama."


UN Secretary General Ban Ki-moon yesterday labeled the last days of negotiations in Copenhagen as “the most complex and ambitious ever to be undertaken by the world community”.

Scottish First Minister Alex Salmond forewent grand rhetorical flourishes in favour of a more prosaic approach – free booze. Salmond has promised a bottle of bottle of specially distilled 2020 whisky that is 42% proof (equal to Scotland’s ambitious target) to any state leader who adopts strong targets.

"Every world leader who commits to ambitious targets will get to 42% proof,” Salmond said, “Those who water down their target will get watered-down whisky," adding that Obama will miss out on current pledges. I am left wondering what might have been if we still had Hawkie as PM.

Indian Environment Minister and conference star Jairam Ramesh has revealed that the BASIC bloc (Brazil, Africa, South Africa, China and India) has drawn up a ‘break conference in case of emergency' draft treaty text that will only be brought out if rich nations attempt to impose a new self interested treaty.

Ramesh also had a dig at Australia, saying “Australia is sort of the ayatollah of the single track,” after cancelling a meeting with Penny Wong. G77 head Lumumba Di–Aping also attacked K-Rudd, saying, “The message Kevin Rudd is giving to his people, his citizens, is a fabrication, it's fiction. It does not relate to the facts because his actions are climate change scepticism in action.”

Bush era neocon and former US ambassador to the UN also laid the boot into Rudd from the right flank with some big government tax hike scaremongering. And, shock, horror, the Australian carried another story running Abbot’s line about how the CPRS is a pinko Labor plot to redistribute the nations wealth.

Meanwhile, in the real world, China, India, South Africa and Brazil held a press conference in Copenhagen yesterday expressing their anger at the lack of credible emissions reduction offers from developed nations. US climate envoy Todd Stern made it clear, however that the U.S. would not be increasing their offer of 17 percent cuts on 2005 levels by 2020.

Ed Miliband, U.K. Climate Secretary and all round reasonable bloke, spoke positively of yesterday'ss progress after the previous day’s African led walk out. "It’s been a better day than yesterday. The process the Danes got under way yesterday has led to positive atmospherics. We've narrowed down the differences before leaders arrive. But this remains a tough ask, it's very complex, and there's a small amount of time left," he said.

Gordon Brown became the second world leader to arrive in Copenhagen, (Al Jazeera reported that Robert Mugabe snuck in first) with 115 others expected to follow. He arrived talking up the need for proper financing, after meeting with Ethiopian PM Meles Zenawi in London yesterday.
The Guardian reported that a number of African countries had sketched out a financing agreement with the EU, with Meles quoted as saying that there was “near total understanding” within the EU.

The world’s most visible climate change activists also joined forces with a series of speeches uniting the all-star cast of Arnold Schwarzenegger, Prince Charles, AL Gore, Nicholas Stern, Darryl Hannah and Wangaari Maathai.

The Governator chose to accentuate the positives, both about Copenhagen and himself, saying, "Some will say da world will melt and we will all die; but I say this conference is already a success. Copenhagen makes us think differently. We are beginning one of history's great transitions," he said, before adding with menace: "I am governor of California and I have the right to brag ... I will be back."

Schwarzenegger "Give me the whisky - I deserve it."

Prince Charles’ address, however, gives hope to the believers in environmental determinism – in contrast to Schwarzenegger’s muscular positivism and self-belief, the Prince was all greasy fish and chip dinners and dour realism (albeit with a stiff upper lip that appears to be melting as quickly as the Himalayan ice cap).

"The grim reality is that our planet has reached a point of crisis... we appear intent upon consuming the planet ... fisheries will collapse by 2050 ... fresh water is scarce," Charles said. "Just as mankind had the power to push the world to the brink so, too, do we have the power to bring it back into balance." "I bloody hope Arnold gives me a dram of that whisky. I need
something strong after all that serious business."

The Prince re-iterated his call for rainforest protection, while at the same time a leaked draft text on REDD showed the removal of all important deforestation targets, with rumours also surfacing that other important clauses, such as the recognition of difference between plantations and natural forests, the rights of indigenous peoples, and biodiversity safeguards, may also be cut.

"Without targets, REDD becomes toothless," said Peg Putt of the Wilderness Society. "The so-called safeguards will be nothing but fancy window-dressing unless they are given legal force." REDD provides an example of the vigourous backroom dealing as negotiators attempt to open, close, twist, and mangle various clauses in their favour.

Australia has been front and centre in these efforts, being accused of attempting to hide emissions behind some fancy land use accounting. This includes gaining emissions credits for creating fewer emissions from logging and agriculture than we think we might make in the future (imagine asking your boss for a raise on the basis that you might lose the company less money than everyone thinks you might five years from now, and you are getting the picture).

The official COP15 site reported that the U.S. and U.K. appear to have lost their attempt to get clean coal certified under the Clean Development Mechanism (or CDM – where rich countries get offsets under Kyoto for investing in emissions reduction in the developing world). This failed as nobody has shown carbon capture and storage is possible or safe in the long term.

China, who has received the lion’s share of CDM funding to date, has also encouraged more investment in less developed nations. For a quick run down on CDM s and other backroom issues, Osman Faruqi's half time report at New Matilda is worth a look.

The police have been gearing up for Wednesday’s mass action where activist are planning to occupy the conference centre. High profile activist Tadzio Mueller, who is associated with Climate Justice Action, the organisers of the Wednesday protest, was arrested after leaving the conference centre yesterday. Police also arrested 190 people and fired tear gas in the alternative enclave of Christiana in central Copenhagen.

The Guardian was the hardest working outlet, using 45 sources , with The Australian coming in a distant second at 15. The Guardian’s sources were overwhelmingly from the developed world(see second graph below). The Guardian did provide a large number of voices from activists (18), primarily in two stories.

The Australian provided the highest number of voices witnessed thus far from those opposed to climate change action on scientific or economic grounds, quoting US arch conservative John Bolton and two Australian industry representatives.

Al Jazeera had only two stories and was lacking its usual feature stories about climate change impacts.

The trend towards favouring developed country actors was accentuated today (see first graph below,) with this appearing largely as a function of a spike in high profile conference attendees, and also The Guardian’s use of activists who are primarily based in the developed world.

Four Minutes to Midnight Express Derailed In Two Track Talks

Al Gore looking worried by the idea of an ice free Arctic

The soaring rhetoric of Yvo De Boer, Ban Ki Moon and Connie Hedeggard seemed a distant memory yesterday as the two track talks saw a head on collision between the developing world and the U.S., Japan, Australia block.

The twin track talks – one draft on a continuation of Kyoto, and a non-Kyoto draft pushed by rich nations which imposes cuts on developing nations – were left in serious disarray on Monday after rich nations attempted to force the abandonment of the Kyoto track and rejected deeper emission cuts, ending in an African led developing nation walkout.

Chair of the talks Hedeggard called a time out to remedy the situation, but only ended up aggravating the situation by suggesting a core of 50 ministers work on a compromise treaty.

The Guardian reported some straight shooting by a number of negotiators:

Victor Fodeke (head of the Nigerian special climate change unit) said: "Africa is on death row. It has been sidelined by some countries. If there is any attempt to remove one of the tracks of negotiations, then it's obvious the train will crash."

A senior Asian negotiator: "The disaster has already begun because we have not closed the gap an inch. We are just trying to paste over it with political rhetoric."

U.K. Climate Secretary Ed Milliband: "We have not done a brilliant job today. We are now four minutes to midnight."

After some frantic negotiating developing nations forced a continuation of the two track talks. The Guardian reported G77 head Lumumba Di-Aping as saying, "The developing countries have won this round. Two texts will be presented to heads of state to sign. We won because Africa and other countries stood up."

Time is running out, however, as heads of state and ministers begin to arrive. The official Cop15 site carried a story quoting Indian environment minister Jairam Ramesh as saying that two texts must be ready by Tuesday night Danish time, as heads of state cannot do the negotiating.

Al Gore also added to the urgency. He conducted a slide show with a Danish scientist which demonstrated evidence of a much earlier than previously thought melting of the Arctic ice cap, with a 75% chance that the entire ice cap will melt over summer within the next five to seven years.

And an example, to demonstrate what rich nations are actually offering, after Obama’s science czar Steven Chu came through with a ‘free set of steak knives’ deal, offering 350 million over five years for renewables in developing nations - Grist.org’s Geoffrey Lean, writing at The Huffington Post, pointed that much of the 10 billion per year emergency fund being offered by rich nations consists of existing aid.

The media outlets COPVoices is looking at also continued a significant bias towards using sources from developed nations, despite the current activities of developing nations, with more than double the number of sources from the developed world (see first graph below).The Australian, unsurprisingly given its daily airing of Tony Abbot’s latest intransigent stab at the CPRS, leads in the favouring of developed country sources(second graph).

Copenhagen gets moving - ["We are now using [square] brackets]"

African Union negotiator and Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi

At last - progress! There has been significant movement on those all important "brackets" in the draft negotiating text - these are the words than go between 'and', 'but', and 'Geezus that bloke from Saudi Arabia is being a pain in the arse' - and deal with the important bits like emissions cuts and money.

In the lead up to Copenhagen, E.U. President Jose Manuel Barroso quipped that the draft text was so full of brackets that it was destined to become "the longest suicide note in history." Thankfully, The Guardian's Jonathon Watts has reported one insider as saying "We are now using square brackets, which signify something solid, instead of squiggley brackets, which were far less substantial."

In other good news, it looks like civil society may be having a little impact. The forces of God were back with the Archbishop of Canterbury Rowan Williams hosting mass in Copenhagen while church bells tolled 350 times across the country (in support of a 350 parts per million C02 target).

There were also 200 more arrests, with new improved cuddly-image concern Chinese negotiating supremo Su Wei contending that the huge protests may be considered "constructive, as it shows the interest of the general public in climate change."An interesting call from a Chinese diplomat, though he hopped safely back onto the fence, saying, "you can also say they disrupt the negotiations and the freedom of other people."

As the end of the conference draws nearer, however, the pressure is beginning to show. It's getting to that stage where impassioned pleas from island nations induce tears in the compassionate, a little choking in the guilty, and constant checking of the watch from US negotiatiors.

The Australian, redeeming itself after reporting tabloid babble about the size of the Australian delegation, has described how bow tie wearing Queanbeyan dandy and Tuvalu negotiator Tom Fry almost broke down defending Tuvalu's draft proposal which requires deep cuts form the U.S. and China.

"I woke this morning and I was crying, and that is not easy for a grown man to admit," Fry was reported as saying in his conference address, "The fate of my country rests in your hands."

The Australian also reported that K-Rudd is rumoured to be pressuring Tuvalu to drop their proposal (supported by 90 island and poor nations) for a 1.5 degree temperature rise target. Further unsubstantiated rumour has it that Tuvala is planning to punish Rudd by making him look even more uncomfortable in the brightest shirt ever seen at next year's South Pacific Forum photo shoot. If there is one thing Rudd will fear more than condemning neighbours to oblivion it's being subject to an uncontrolled press conference.

The African Union is also not taking the obstructionism of developed nations lying down. Ethiopian Prime Minister and AU negotiator Meles Zenawi has throw down the gauntlet, saying "If Copenhagen is going to be about an agreement that simply rides roughshod over Africa, then we will try to scuttle it, and I think we have reasonable assurance we can scuttle it if our concerns are not addressed."

The official COP15 site also reported that Zenawi has sought assurances from India and China that they won't support any deal that doesn't addressed African demands for funding.

Al Jazeera has also stocked up on the real business of climate change, with several stories detailing some pretty shocking impacts that people in the developing world are wearing. Disastrous Kashmiri saffron harvests and the oxygen starvation and death of most life in the Manaquiri River in the Brazilian Amazon provide a poignant counterpoint to debates about squiggly or square brackets.The English Transition Town pin-up child of Totnes also gets a look in to show that not all the news is bad.

The show rolls on.....

India maintains its poker face as Africa demands free chips and Mexico brings its own.

India maintains its poker face, as Africa demands a pile of free chips and Mexico brings it’s own.

Copenhagen Texas Hold’em host Connie Hedeggard passed judgement at the halfway mark of proceedings, saying "we have made considerable progress over the course of the first week". Well, at least everyone is still seated, and some delegates are talking up their hand (a REDD of hearts and an optimistically good hand of technology transfers).

Indian Environment Minister Jairam Ramesh yesterday put India’s cards on the table – a 20 – 25% reduction in carbon intensity (emissions per unit of GDP) on 2005 levels by 2020. A big small step, particularly given the pre-tournament confusion as India’s two top negotiators went home in protest at Captain Ramesh’s undermining of their ‘no reductions’ strategy.

Ramesh rejected the idea of any emissions peak, however, saying, “we will not agree to a concept of a peaking year for India because we have a huge backlog of development particularly in expanding rural electricity supply.” Could make things tricky in the future as India’s growth accelerates. Though good if you own BHP or Rio shares.

The African negotiating group has thrown out the figure of five percent of rich nations GDP for mitigation and adaptation funding in the developed world. This appears an ambit claim, given that the group has asked for US$400 billion from 2010-2012 when the UN estimates a need for 30 billion. Given that the emissions reduction ask in the same text is consistent with cutting edge science (50 percent by 2017 compared to 1990 levels, rising to 65 percent by 2020), however, and these nations are copping it climatically, it’s difficult to judge.

G77 head and notoriously hard player Lumumba Di Aping has kept his profile up, writing off the E.U.’s 7 billion 2010-21012 funding offer. "Our view is that European leaders are acting as if they were climate sceptics," Di Aping said, "Fundamentally, they are saying this problem does not exist and therefore they are providing no finance whatsoever."

Mexican President Felipe Calderon, due in Copenhagen later this week, promised on Friday that Mexico will start cutting emissions in two years out of its own pocket, and continue if it gets international help, aiming for 30% cuts by 2020.

Yesterday saw big protests in Copenhagen, with The Australian leading with Desmond Tutu and former Irish President Mary Robinson holding of a candlelit vigil (in a story titled Anti-capitalist protesters take to streets of Copenhagen. )The story was actually about a rally attended by 30-100,000 people where a few hundred black hoodie clad types were arrested.

The Danish police arrested around 900 people over a number of protests that continue d into yesterday night, cracking down after a handful of people allegedly threw some bricks, though the brick throwing was disputed by some marchers, The Guardian reported. They quoted a British demonstrator, Georgy Forshall, as saying "Two of my friends are in there. The police said demonstrators had been throwing stones, but my friends were in a cow costume, they wouldn't have been able to throw stones."

Al Jazeera reported that police began arrests after some activist attempted to disrupt meetings between corporations and industry lobby groups. 

In Australia there were also large rallies, at the annual Walk Against Warming, including 40,000 in Melbourne. Gratefully these rallies avoided being overshadowed by the disturbances such as occurred in Copenhagen, and climate change was front and centre rather than crucial issues such as whether or not a cow can throw rocks or whether people did or police imagined that they did.

A big week looming, and as they say, it’s a game of two halves. As the big hitters warm up on the bench, the protestors sharpen their slogans, and the late night negotiations continue, COPVoices will keep the news flowing.